Overview of the study SPOT
This study presents hypothetical scenarios for developing the music sector in line with the target of a carbon neutral economy in France by 2050.
The ecological transition must facilitate the social shift from non-sustainable to sustainable forms of development that do not exceed the nine planetary boundaries1. For the whole of society to be able to imagine and move toward this new way of life, it seems essential to offer possible visions of the future. Since 2021, the agency for ecological transition Ademe (Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie) has taken this approach in its future planning for the fight against climate change. “Transition(s) 2050” is an ambitious forecasting project for the French economy, which constructs four hypothetical scenarios to reach the target of carbon neutrality by 2050.
Ademe’s work, together with information from the SNBC (Stratégie nationale bas carbone) roadmap for lowering carbon emissions, has served as a flexible framework to develop this “long wave” study published by CNMlab. The Ramboll consultancy firm, specialists in future planning, was hired to assess the music sector’s current environmental impact, organize the forecasting work and deliver the technical report that makes up the main element of this project.
The study is divided into three parts:
- Overview of the climate and environmental challenges facing the music ecosystem
- Scenarios for adapting the music ecosystem between now and 2050.
- Main issues for the future of the sector.
The study draws on a documentary analysis of economic data, data from existing carbon assessments from the last trimester of 2023, and a series of interviews, which allowed us to draft an initial overview of how exposed the music ecosystem is to climate change and its consequences. This work evaluated the main emission sources and identified the issues relating to the climate and biophysical and non-renewable resources, which may affect supplies, infrastructure, health, working conditions, finances and audiences. These assessments allowed us to establish an overall estimate to quantify the necessary efforts to reach carbon neutrality in each scenario.
To create plausible scenarios, putting together a working group who represented different professions within the ecosystem was essential. This group first met to identify the structuring variables, such as governance and economic models, and more sector-specific variables, such as the question of professions and statuses, and even the link between music and the local area. Following this scoping process, the group created hypotheses for developing these variables within the sector.
These hypotheses were mapped onto the Ademe scenarios and then future projections were developed by taking into account the orders of magnitude for reduction and the effects resulting from each adaptation. The study proposes four model scenarios that offer possibilities for developing the sector.
Hypothetical scenarios 2050: Adapting the music ecosystem to climate and environmental issues
Scenario 1: “À bicyclette” (Yves Montand) — Frugality
Only the first scenario would allow for the sector to make an equitable effort to the overall strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Frugality is based on significant changes in audience practices and increased state intervention in large-scale decarbonization and adaptation programs alongside the state taking a relative step back from managing cultural policies, which are now confided to local public actors. If implemented, this scenario has the most significant impact on professions within the sector: in real terms, it means an economic contraction of the professional environment, with numerous jobs disappearing.
Scenario 2: “Come Together” (The Beatles) — Restraint and efficiency
The second scenario promotes a form of decentralization that creates a better balance of cultural and music activities across regions. While it avoids an economic contraction of the sector, existing tensions remain unresolved in the provision of biophysical resources to support the roll out of the digital economy of music recording. Its guiding logic is to decentralize and distribute cultural events more evenly across the whole country.
Scenario 3: “Computer Love” (Kraftwerk) — Polarization and efficiency
The third scenario presents the same tensions as the second, but here they are more sharply felt as growth in the sector relies much more on the digital. The gamble on greener technologies brings about dangerous consequences for the sector: it leads to a significant rise in insurance and security costs for live performances. This and other factors contribute to forcing out some professionals in the industry, resulting in the emergence of a tolerated form of counterculture.
Scenario 4: “Harder Better Faster Stronger” (Daft Punk) — Domination
In the fourth and final scenario, the state manages climate crises using technology while public powers disinvest from cultural policies. This absence of state policies results in two different courses of development: actors that continue to grow can support certain artists for their entire careers, and other actors pool their strengths to continue to produce performances. Access to the performing arts becomes a luxury, usually reserved for the elite.
These four scenarios would result in major transformations that would affect both the professions in the industry and the practices of audiences and listeners. Moreover, the final three scenarios would require the music sector to draw more heavily on the efforts of other sectors to offset its carbon footprint. Otherwise, its impact would remain higher than the equitable effort required for all other parts of the French economy.
Key future issues for addressing climate and environmental challenges
This narrative exercise focuses on the major short- and medium-term issues that the music industry must address.
Transforming the music ecosystem and its economic models
The rationale of economic development, along with the simultaneous advance of global warming, reveals the necessity of carrying out work to transform economic models. This study identifies reducing the fragility of infrastructure, predicted changes to professions and skills, and habits of producing and consuming that need to be questioned.
Rethinking the governance of the music ecosystem
Another prominent issue is how this ecosystem should be governed to bring about the transformations that global warming will engender. To address this question, it seems necessary to work on governmental frameworks, all the while redrawing the contours of the landscape and ensuring that this transition is in line with cultural rights.
Working on visualizing these transformations
Finally, to be able to enact these changes, it also seems important to address the issue of how we can visualize these transitions by drawing on experimentation to change practices and uses and on the role of music in changing behaviors.
These scenarios outline possible futures that are on the horizon. Their goal is to allow individuals working in the sector to predict and understand the transformations that could affect the ecosystem in the coming years. They provide a basis from which to open up the debate on the direction that we collectively seek to give to this transition.
- In 2009, an international team of 26 researchers led by Johan Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Centre) and Will Steffen (The Australian National University) identified a set of nine planetary boundaries, which were adopted by France’s sustainable development commission, the CGDD (Commissariat général du développement durable): climate change; biosphere integrity; land-system change; freshwater change; biogeochemical flows; ocean acidification; atmospheric aerosol loading; stratospheric ozone depletion; novel entities. For more information, see: https://www.notre-environnement.gouv.fr/themes/societe/article/limites-planetaires. ↩︎